×

Title:

El-Nemo SE: risk assessment of impacts of climate change for key species in South Eastern Australia

Project Number:

2009-070

Organisation:

University of Tasmania (UTAS)

Principal Investigator:

Gretta Pecl

Project Status:

Completed

FRDC Expenditure:

$140,163.66

Program(s):

Environment

Final Report - 2009/070 - Risk Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change for Key Marine Species in South Eastern Australia Part 1 Fisheries and Aquaculture Risk Assessment

Final Report
ISBN:978-1-86295-618-6
ISSN:
Author(s):
Date Published:April 2012
Principal Investigator: Gretta Pecl, Tim Ward, Zoë Doubleday Steven Clarke, Jemery Day, Cameron Dixon, Stewart Frusher, Philip Gibbs, Alistair Hobday, Neil Hutchinson, Sarah Jennings, Keith Jones, Xiaoxu Li, Daniel Spooner, Richard Stoklosa

Key Words: Climate change impacts, aquaculture adaptation, fisheries adaptation, risk assessment, research priorities, marine ecosystems

Summary:

 

Please note that there are two parts to the final report for project 2009/070

  1. Final Report - 2009/070 - Risk Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change for Key Marine Species in South Eastern Australia Part 1 Fisheries and Aquaculture Risk Assessment
  2. Final Report - 2009/070 - Risk Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change for Key Marine Species in South Eastern Australia Part 2 Species profiles
The oceans are the earth’s main buffer to climate change, absorbing up to 80% of the heat and 50% of the atmospheric carbon emitted. Changes in temperature, environmental flows, ocean pH, sea level, and wind regimes are all contributing to modifications in productivity, distribution and timing of life cycle events in marine species, affecting ecosystem processes and altering food webs. The south-eastern region of Australia has experienced significant oceanographic changes over recent decades and this has been reflected by changes in the associated ecosystems: range extensions have been documented in several dozen species, major distributional shifts have been recorded in barrens-forming sea urchins, bivalves and gastropods, and major declines in rock lobster recruitment have also been related to ocean warming and changing circulation patterns.

The major goal of this project was to undertake a screening-level risk assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on key fishery species in the south east Australian region. Thorough literature reviews and species assessment profiles were completed for key species to underpin the ecological risk analyses. Physical drivers of climate change stressors on each fishery species were identified. Wild capture fishery and aquaculture species were ranked according to their need for further assessment of their vulnerability to climate change.

  • Temperature was the most commonly cited driver of current or potential climate change impacts for both fisheries and aquaculture species. Among other changes, increases in temperature impact growth rates and larval development, timing of annual migrations, onset of spawning, susceptibility to disease and geographical distribution. Impacts of ocean acidification were associated with high uncertainty for all species. The consequences of lowered pH may include reductions in calcification rates, increased physiological stress and disruption to settlement cues.
  • Potential changes in currents, freshwater flows and salinity were important for fisheries species whilst increases in the severity, duration or frequency of extreme events were the major concern for aquaculture species.
  • Each jurisdiction in the south-eastern region had at least one of its two most important species classified as high risk. Fisheries species considered at highest risk also supported the region’s highest value fisheries – blacklip and greenlip abalone and southern rock lobster. These species demonstrate little capacity to move at adult stages, lower physiological tolerances, and have life history stages that are strongly affected by environmental associations (e.g. spawning and settlement). Habitat loss via the barrens causing urchin Centrostephanus is also a major concern for both species.
  • For aquaculture species, the level of connectivity of growout to the natural environment and vulnerability to disease were the attributes most sensitive to climate change. Sydney rock oysters, pacific oysters and blue mussels were the aquaculture species at highest risk.
  • Major knowledge gaps identified for fisheries species included: environmental tolerances of key life stages, sources of recruitment, population linkages, critical ecological relationships (i.e. predator-prey), influence of environmental variables on the timing of life cycle events and responses to lowered pH.
  • Key knowledge gaps for aquaculture species included: impacts on physiology and immunology, ability of selective breeding to counteract impacts, interactions between aquaculture species and organisms that affect performance and survival (such as parasites, viruses, and microalgae), and limited availability of fine-scale climate change monitoring and modelling relevant to aquaculture sites.

Changes in the distribution, abundance and species composition of our commercial fisheries resources as a function of changing climate is going to be unavoidable and our industries will need to adapt to minimise exposure to risks which, given constructive adaptive actions, could be avoided. It is imperative that industries and managers are proactive in positioning themselves to undertake a strategic and structured approach to adaptation planning and engage in subsequent actions to minimise losses and maximise opportunities arising from climate change. Successful adaptation planning is not just about implementing strategies to minimise vulnerabilities and potential losses, it is also concerned with ensuring adequate preparedness to maximise advantages offered by new opportunities. However, not all threats identified will be responsive to anticipatory actions and we need to focus on the threats posing the greatest future cost and that will be most responsive to anticipatory action.

 

SPECIES INVESTIGATED:

Abalone, blacklip and greenlip Haliotis rubra and H. laevigata;
Australian salmon Arripis trutta and A. truttaceus
Black bream Acanthopagrus butcheri
Blue grenadier Macruronus novaezelandiaei
Blue swimmer crab Portunus pelagicus
Commercial scallop Pecten fumatus
Eastern king prawn Melicertus plebejus
Flatheads Platycephalida
Gummy shark Mustelus antarcticus
King George whiting Sillaginodes punctatus
School prawn Metapenaeus macleayi
Snapper Chrysophrys auratus
Southern bluefin tuna Thunnus maccoyii
Southern calamari Sepioteuthis australis
Southern garfish Hyporhamphus melanochir
Southern rock lobster Jasus edwardsii
Spanner crab Ranina ranina
Striped marlin Kajikia audax
Western king prawn Penaeus latisulcatus
Yellowtail kingfish Serolia lalandi

AQUACULTURE SPECIES
Abalone, blacklip, greenlip and tiger (hydrid), Haliotis rubra & H. laevigata
Atlantic salmon Salmo salar
Blue mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis
Pacific oyster Crossostrea gigas
Southern bluefin tuna Thunnus maccoyii
Sydney rock oyster Saccostrea glomerata
Yellowtail kingfish Seriola lalandi
 


Final Report - 2009/070 - Risk Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change for Key Marine Species in South Eastern Australia Part 1 Fisheries and Aquaculture Risk Assessment

Final Report
ISBN:978-1-86295-618-6
ISSN:
Author(s):
Date Published:April 2012
Principal Investigator: Gretta Pecl, Tim Ward, Zoë Doubleday Steven Clarke, Jemery Day, Cameron Dixon, Stewart Frusher, Philip Gibbs, Alistair Hobday, Neil Hutchinson, Sarah Jennings, Keith Jones, Xiaoxu Li, Daniel Spooner, Richard Stoklosa

Key Words: Climate change impacts, aquaculture adaptation, fisheries adaptation, risk assessment, research priorities, marine ecosystems

Summary:

 

Please note that there are two parts to the final report for project 2009/070

  1. Final Report - 2009/070 - Risk Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change for Key Marine Species in South Eastern Australia Part 1 Fisheries and Aquaculture Risk Assessment
  2. Final Report - 2009/070 - Risk Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change for Key Marine Species in South Eastern Australia Part 2 Species profiles
The oceans are the earth’s main buffer to climate change, absorbing up to 80% of the heat and 50% of the atmospheric carbon emitted. Changes in temperature, environmental flows, ocean pH, sea level, and wind regimes are all contributing to modifications in productivity, distribution and timing of life cycle events in marine species, affecting ecosystem processes and altering food webs. The south-eastern region of Australia has experienced significant oceanographic changes over recent decades and this has been reflected by changes in the associated ecosystems: range extensions have been documented in several dozen species, major distributional shifts have been recorded in barrens-forming sea urchins, bivalves and gastropods, and major declines in rock lobster recruitment have also been related to ocean warming and changing circulation patterns.

The major goal of this project was to undertake a screening-level risk assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on key fishery species in the south east Australian region. Thorough literature reviews and species assessment profiles were completed for key species to underpin the ecological risk analyses. Physical drivers of climate change stressors on each fishery species were identified. Wild capture fishery and aquaculture species were ranked according to their need for further assessment of their vulnerability to climate change.

  • Temperature was the most commonly cited driver of current or potential climate change impacts for both fisheries and aquaculture species. Among other changes, increases in temperature impact growth rates and larval development, timing of annual migrations, onset of spawning, susceptibility to disease and geographical distribution. Impacts of ocean acidification were associated with high uncertainty for all species. The consequences of lowered pH may include reductions in calcification rates, increased physiological stress and disruption to settlement cues.
  • Potential changes in currents, freshwater flows and salinity were important for fisheries species whilst increases in the severity, duration or frequency of extreme events were the major concern for aquaculture species.
  • Each jurisdiction in the south-eastern region had at least one of its two most important species classified as high risk. Fisheries species considered at highest risk also supported the region’s highest value fisheries – blacklip and greenlip abalone and southern rock lobster. These species demonstrate little capacity to move at adult stages, lower physiological tolerances, and have life history stages that are strongly affected by environmental associations (e.g. spawning and settlement). Habitat loss via the barrens causing urchin Centrostephanus is also a major concern for both species.
  • For aquaculture species, the level of connectivity of growout to the natural environment and vulnerability to disease were the attributes most sensitive to climate change. Sydney rock oysters, pacific oysters and blue mussels were the aquaculture species at highest risk.
  • Major knowledge gaps identified for fisheries species included: environmental tolerances of key life stages, sources of recruitment, population linkages, critical ecological relationships (i.e. predator-prey), influence of environmental variables on the timing of life cycle events and responses to lowered pH.
  • Key knowledge gaps for aquaculture species included: impacts on physiology and immunology, ability of selective breeding to counteract impacts, interactions between aquaculture species and organisms that affect performance and survival (such as parasites, viruses, and microalgae), and limited availability of fine-scale climate change monitoring and modelling relevant to aquaculture sites.

Changes in the distribution, abundance and species composition of our commercial fisheries resources as a function of changing climate is going to be unavoidable and our industries will need to adapt to minimise exposure to risks which, given constructive adaptive actions, could be avoided. It is imperative that industries and managers are proactive in positioning themselves to undertake a strategic and structured approach to adaptation planning and engage in subsequent actions to minimise losses and maximise opportunities arising from climate change. Successful adaptation planning is not just about implementing strategies to minimise vulnerabilities and potential losses, it is also concerned with ensuring adequate preparedness to maximise advantages offered by new opportunities. However, not all threats identified will be responsive to anticipatory actions and we need to focus on the threats posing the greatest future cost and that will be most responsive to anticipatory action.

 

SPECIES INVESTIGATED:

Abalone, blacklip and greenlip Haliotis rubra and H. laevigata;
Australian salmon Arripis trutta and A. truttaceus
Black bream Acanthopagrus butcheri
Blue grenadier Macruronus novaezelandiaei
Blue swimmer crab Portunus pelagicus
Commercial scallop Pecten fumatus
Eastern king prawn Melicertus plebejus
Flatheads Platycephalida
Gummy shark Mustelus antarcticus
King George whiting Sillaginodes punctatus
School prawn Metapenaeus macleayi
Snapper Chrysophrys auratus
Southern bluefin tuna Thunnus maccoyii
Southern calamari Sepioteuthis australis
Southern garfish Hyporhamphus melanochir
Southern rock lobster Jasus edwardsii
Spanner crab Ranina ranina
Striped marlin Kajikia audax
Western king prawn Penaeus latisulcatus
Yellowtail kingfish Serolia lalandi

AQUACULTURE SPECIES
Abalone, blacklip, greenlip and tiger (hydrid), Haliotis rubra & H. laevigata
Atlantic salmon Salmo salar
Blue mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis
Pacific oyster Crossostrea gigas
Southern bluefin tuna Thunnus maccoyii
Sydney rock oyster Saccostrea glomerata
Yellowtail kingfish Seriola lalandi
 


Final Report - 2009/070 - Risk Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change for Key Marine Species in South Eastern Australia Part 2 Species profiles

Final Report
ISBN:978-1-86295-619-3
ISSN:
Author(s):
Date Published:April 2012
Principal Investigator: Gretta Pecl, Tim Ward, Zoë Doubleday Steven Clarke, Jemery Day, Cameron Dixon, Stewart Frusher, Philip Gibbs, Alistair Hobday, Neil Hutchinson, Sarah Jennings, Keith Jones, Xiaoxu Li, Daniel Spooner, Richard Stoklosa

Key Words: Climate change impacts, aquaculture adaptation, fisheries adaptation, risk assessment, research priorities, marine ecosystems

Summary:

 

Please note that there are two parts to the final report for project 2009/070

 

  1. Final Report - 2009/070 - Risk Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change for Key Marine Species in South Eastern Australia Part 1 Fisheries and Aquaculture Risk Assessment
  2. Final Report - 2009/070 - Risk Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change for Key Marine Species in South Eastern Australia Part 2 Species profiles

 

The oceans are the earth’s main buffer to climate change, absorbing up to 80% of the heat and 50% of the atmospheric carbon emitted. Changes in temperature, environmental flows, ocean pH, sea level, and wind regimes are all contributing to modifications in productivity, distribution and timing of life cycle events in marine species, affecting ecosystem processes and altering food webs. The south-eastern region of Australia has experienced significant oceanographic changes over recent decades and this has been reflected by changes in the associated ecosystems: range extensions have been documented in several dozen species, major distributional shifts have been recorded in barrens-forming sea urchins, bivalves and gastropods, and major declines in rock lobster recruitment have also been related to ocean warming and changing circulation patterns.

The major goal of this project was to undertake a screening-level risk assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on key fishery species in the south east Australian region. Thorough literature reviews and species assessment profiles were completed for key species to underpin the ecological risk analyses. Physical drivers of climate change stressors on each fishery species were identified. Wild capture fishery and aquaculture species were ranked according to their need for further assessment of their vulnerability to climate change.

  • Temperature was the most commonly cited driver of current or potential climate change impacts for both fisheries and aquaculture species. Among other changes, increases in temperature impact growth rates and larval development, timing of annual migrations, onset of spawning, susceptibility to disease and geographical distribution. Impacts of ocean acidification were associated with high uncertainty for all species. The consequences of lowered pH may include reductions in calcification rates, increased physiological stress and disruption to settlement cues.
  • Potential changes in currents, freshwater flows and salinity were important for fisheries species whilst increases in the severity, duration or frequency of extreme events were the major concern for aquaculture species.
  • Each jurisdiction in the south-eastern region had at least one of its two most important species classified as high risk. Fisheries species considered at highest risk also supported the region’s highest value fisheries – blacklip and greenlip abalone and southern rock lobster. These species demonstrate little capacity to move at adult stages, lower physiological tolerances, and have life history stages that are strongly affected by environmental associations (e.g. spawning and settlement). Habitat loss via the barrens causing urchin Centrostephanus is also a major concern for both species.
  • For aquaculture species, the level of connectivity of growout to the natural environment and vulnerability to disease were the attributes most sensitive to climate change. Sydney rock oysters, pacific oysters and blue mussels were the aquaculture species at highest risk.
  • Major knowledge gaps identified for fisheries species included: environmental tolerances of key life stages, sources of recruitment, population linkages, critical ecological relationships (i.e. predator-prey), influence of environmental variables on the timing of life cycle events and responses to lowered pH.
  • Key knowledge gaps for aquaculture species included: impacts on physiology and immunology, ability of selective breeding to counteract impacts, interactions between aquaculture species and organisms that affect performance and survival (such as parasites, viruses, and microalgae), and limited availability of fine-scale climate change monitoring and modelling relevant to aquaculture sites.

Changes in the distribution, abundance and species composition of our commercial fisheries resources as a function of changing climate is going to be unavoidable and our industries will need to adapt to minimise exposure to risks which, given constructive adaptive actions, could be avoided. It is imperative that industries and managers are proactive in positioning themselves to undertake a strategic and structured approach to adaptation planning and engage in subsequent actions to minimise losses and maximise opportunities arising from climate change. Successful adaptation planning is not just about implementing strategies to minimise vulnerabilities and potential losses, it is also concerned with ensuring adequate preparedness to maximise advantages offered by new opportunities. However, not all threats identified will be responsive to anticipatory actions and we need to focus on the threats posing the greatest future cost and that will be most responsive to anticipatory action.

 

SPECIES INVESTIGATED:

Abalone, blacklip and greenlip Haliotis rubra and H. laevigata;
Australian salmon Arripis trutta and A. truttaceus
Black bream Acanthopagrus butcheri
Blue grenadier Macruronus novaezelandiaei
Blue swimmer crab Portunus pelagicus
Commercial scallop Pecten fumatus
Eastern king prawn Melicertus plebejus
Flatheads Platycephalida
Gummy shark Mustelus antarcticus
King George whiting Sillaginodes punctatus
School prawn Metapenaeus macleayi
Snapper Chrysophrys auratus
Southern bluefin tuna Thunnus maccoyii
Southern calamari Sepioteuthis australis
Southern garfish Hyporhamphus melanochir
Southern rock lobster Jasus edwardsii
Spanner crab Ranina ranina
Striped marlin Kajikia audax
Western king prawn Penaeus latisulcatus
Yellowtail kingfish Serolia lalandi

AQUACULTURE SPECIES
Abalone, blacklip, greenlip and tiger (hydrid), Haliotis rubra & H. laevigata
Atlantic salmon Salmo salar
Blue mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis
Pacific oyster Crossostrea gigas
Southern bluefin tuna Thunnus maccoyii
Sydney rock oyster Saccostrea glomerata
Yellowtail kingfish Seriola lalandi
 


Final Report - 2009/070 - Risk Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change for Key Marine Species in South Eastern Australia Part 2 Species profiles

Final Report
ISBN:978-1-86295-619-3
ISSN:
Author(s):
Date Published:April 2012
Principal Investigator: Gretta Pecl, Tim Ward, Zoë Doubleday Steven Clarke, Jemery Day, Cameron Dixon, Stewart Frusher, Philip Gibbs, Alistair Hobday, Neil Hutchinson, Sarah Jennings, Keith Jones, Xiaoxu Li, Daniel Spooner, Richard Stoklosa

Key Words: Climate change impacts, aquaculture adaptation, fisheries adaptation, risk assessment, research priorities, marine ecosystems

Summary:

 

Please note that there are two parts to the final report for project 2009/070

 

  1. Final Report - 2009/070 - Risk Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change for Key Marine Species in South Eastern Australia Part 1 Fisheries and Aquaculture Risk Assessment
  2. Final Report - 2009/070 - Risk Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change for Key Marine Species in South Eastern Australia Part 2 Species profiles

 

The oceans are the earth’s main buffer to climate change, absorbing up to 80% of the heat and 50% of the atmospheric carbon emitted. Changes in temperature, environmental flows, ocean pH, sea level, and wind regimes are all contributing to modifications in productivity, distribution and timing of life cycle events in marine species, affecting ecosystem processes and altering food webs. The south-eastern region of Australia has experienced significant oceanographic changes over recent decades and this has been reflected by changes in the associated ecosystems: range extensions have been documented in several dozen species, major distributional shifts have been recorded in barrens-forming sea urchins, bivalves and gastropods, and major declines in rock lobster recruitment have also been related to ocean warming and changing circulation patterns.

The major goal of this project was to undertake a screening-level risk assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on key fishery species in the south east Australian region. Thorough literature reviews and species assessment profiles were completed for key species to underpin the ecological risk analyses. Physical drivers of climate change stressors on each fishery species were identified. Wild capture fishery and aquaculture species were ranked according to their need for further assessment of their vulnerability to climate change.

  • Temperature was the most commonly cited driver of current or potential climate change impacts for both fisheries and aquaculture species. Among other changes, increases in temperature impact growth rates and larval development, timing of annual migrations, onset of spawning, susceptibility to disease and geographical distribution. Impacts of ocean acidification were associated with high uncertainty for all species. The consequences of lowered pH may include reductions in calcification rates, increased physiological stress and disruption to settlement cues.
  • Potential changes in currents, freshwater flows and salinity were important for fisheries species whilst increases in the severity, duration or frequency of extreme events were the major concern for aquaculture species.
  • Each jurisdiction in the south-eastern region had at least one of its two most important species classified as high risk. Fisheries species considered at highest risk also supported the region’s highest value fisheries – blacklip and greenlip abalone and southern rock lobster. These species demonstrate little capacity to move at adult stages, lower physiological tolerances, and have life history stages that are strongly affected by environmental associations (e.g. spawning and settlement). Habitat loss via the barrens causing urchin Centrostephanus is also a major concern for both species.
  • For aquaculture species, the level of connectivity of growout to the natural environment and vulnerability to disease were the attributes most sensitive to climate change. Sydney rock oysters, pacific oysters and blue mussels were the aquaculture species at highest risk.
  • Major knowledge gaps identified for fisheries species included: environmental tolerances of key life stages, sources of recruitment, population linkages, critical ecological relationships (i.e. predator-prey), influence of environmental variables on the timing of life cycle events and responses to lowered pH.
  • Key knowledge gaps for aquaculture species included: impacts on physiology and immunology, ability of selective breeding to counteract impacts, interactions between aquaculture species and organisms that affect performance and survival (such as parasites, viruses, and microalgae), and limited availability of fine-scale climate change monitoring and modelling relevant to aquaculture sites.

Changes in the distribution, abundance and species composition of our commercial fisheries resources as a function of changing climate is going to be unavoidable and our industries will need to adapt to minimise exposure to risks which, given constructive adaptive actions, could be avoided. It is imperative that industries and managers are proactive in positioning themselves to undertake a strategic and structured approach to adaptation planning and engage in subsequent actions to minimise losses and maximise opportunities arising from climate change. Successful adaptation planning is not just about implementing strategies to minimise vulnerabilities and potential losses, it is also concerned with ensuring adequate preparedness to maximise advantages offered by new opportunities. However, not all threats identified will be responsive to anticipatory actions and we need to focus on the threats posing the greatest future cost and that will be most responsive to anticipatory action.

 

SPECIES INVESTIGATED:

Abalone, blacklip and greenlip Haliotis rubra and H. laevigata;
Australian salmon Arripis trutta and A. truttaceus
Black bream Acanthopagrus butcheri
Blue grenadier Macruronus novaezelandiaei
Blue swimmer crab Portunus pelagicus
Commercial scallop Pecten fumatus
Eastern king prawn Melicertus plebejus
Flatheads Platycephalida
Gummy shark Mustelus antarcticus
King George whiting Sillaginodes punctatus
School prawn Metapenaeus macleayi
Snapper Chrysophrys auratus
Southern bluefin tuna Thunnus maccoyii
Southern calamari Sepioteuthis australis
Southern garfish Hyporhamphus melanochir
Southern rock lobster Jasus edwardsii
Spanner crab Ranina ranina
Striped marlin Kajikia audax
Western king prawn Penaeus latisulcatus
Yellowtail kingfish Serolia lalandi

AQUACULTURE SPECIES
Abalone, blacklip, greenlip and tiger (hydrid), Haliotis rubra & H. laevigata
Atlantic salmon Salmo salar
Blue mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis
Pacific oyster Crossostrea gigas
Southern bluefin tuna Thunnus maccoyii
Sydney rock oyster Saccostrea glomerata
Yellowtail kingfish Seriola lalandi
 


Objectives

1. Identify the life history stages, habitats and aquaculture systems of key species that may be impacted by climate change

2. Identify the physical and chemical parameters that may determine the potential impacts of climate change on key species

3. Conduct a preliminary risk assessment of each key species to the potential impacts of climate change

4. Highlight what additional information on the tolerances and sensitivities will be needed to develop bioclimatic envelope models for key species