Following the Ministerial Direction, the NPF is likely to adopt an ITQ management system with a time line of 2010. The transition to a quota system requires research on methods of estimating total allowable catches (TACs). The NPF is a multi-species fishery. However, stock assessment has only been done for two out of the eight commercial species. Controlling catch of only two species cannot secure the long-term sustainability of the whole NPF. Therefore, a whole-fishery approach must be adopted, and stock assessment needs to be extended to a greater number of species.

Estimating TACs for annual species like the NPF prawns is challenging because recruitment and subsequent catches are greatly influenced by environmental variables and fluctuate widely. In the NPF, biological parameters are not uniformly known for all prawn species, and the characteristics of population dynamics differ from species to species. A tier-approach should be applied here like the SESSF, i.e. a formal stock assessment will be done for species supported by sufficient data; for others more empirical methods may be adopted. It is well known that the move from input to output control causes major changes to the catch rate data and can cause a major break in the time series.

A key management objective in the NPF is the maximisation of economic profits. TACs will, therefore, have to reflect this economic objective. Although the theory of maximum economic yield (MEY) is well established, such a management target has not been implemented in any fishery. Achieving such a target requires both methodological development and analysis of a number of factors not previously considered when setting TACs in fisheries.

In summary, this proposal is designed to meet the strategic need and provide the science, tools and technical support for the successful transition of the NPF to a quota management system.